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Research and analytics
Methodologically grounded research for decisions that must hold up.
Policy Oracle runs a dedicated research function for development agencies, NGOs and national and subnational governments. We help institutions build defensible baselines, analyse indicators and implement robust models.
Research practices
From measurement foundations to forecasting.
We help institutions build the evidence base and the analytical muscle they need to make and defend decisions. Our work ranges from establishing measurement foundations to advanced economic and competitive analysis. We transfer skills to client teams as we go, so capability stays behind after the assignment ends.
Baselines and End-lines
For organisations in the development, NGO and humanitarian sectors, we specialise in parameter identification and definition, laying the foundation for strategic planning and a clear path from where clients stand to where they intend to be.
Data Modelling and Analytics
We help clients harness their data for evidence-based decisions using current analytical techniques and modelling frameworks, uncovering the patterns and opportunities within it and turning them into action.
Macro-Economic Modelling and Forecasting
We provide insight into key economic indicators, market trends and risks, helping clients anticipate shifts, identify opportunities and manage threats.
Competitive Intelligence and Forecasting
Through analysis of market dynamics, competitor behaviour and industry trends, we help clients refine their positioning, anticipate change and act ahead of it.
Research and Capacity Building practice · Monitoring, Evaluation and Indicator Verification
How we work
Evidence documented so it can be scrutinised.
We follow a disciplined, evidence-led method that carries clients from the underlying problem to a result they can sustain. Every engagement is tailored to context, but the logic stays consistent, and each stage produces an output the client can use in its own right.
- 01
Understand
We begin with the real problem, not the presenting symptom. We map stakeholders, incentives, context and constraints, and agree with the client on the exact decision the work must serve.
- 02
Evidence
We collect and analyse robust qualitative and quantitative data, from surveys and independent field verification to administrative data, economic modelling and structured evidence review, and we document everything so the analysis can be scrutinised.
- 03
Design
We craft practical, human-centred solutions and translate them into clear policy, strategy or programme design. Priorities are mapped, trade-offs are explicit and options are costed, so decision-makers choose with their eyes open.
- 04
Deliver
We support implementation with actionable roadmaps, institutional arrangements, capacity building and knowledge systems, so the client can carry the work forward without permanent dependence on us.
- 05
Evaluate
We assess impact before and after, measure what works and what does not, and feed the learning back into better decisions. Evaluation is a source of improvement, not a compliance exercise.
Methods and tools
- Stakeholder and political-economy analysis
- Qualitative and quantitative research
- Survey and sampling design
- Independent field verification and record audits
- Remote sensing and GIS
- Econometric and statistical modelling
- Difference-in-differences and impact evaluation
- Cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis
- Public expenditure and fiscal analysis
- Theory of change and results frameworks
- Data analytics and visualisation
Glossary
The terms behind the work.
Plain definitions of the methods and concepts we use, from difference-in-differences to own-source revenue.
- AI GovernanceThe policies, controls, roles and oversight arrangements an institution uses to make sure AI systems are desig...
- Algorithmic Impact Assessment (AIA)A structured review, carried out before an automated system is deployed, of its likely effects on privacy, fai...
- Explainable AI (XAI)Methods and design choices that make the outputs of an AI model understandable to the people who use, oversee ...
- Data Protection Impact Assessment (DPIA)An assessment, required by most modern data protection laws for high-risk processing, that identifies and redu...
- Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E)Monitoring is the routine tracking of a programme's activities and results. Evaluation is the periodic, system...
- Third-Party VerificationIndependent confirmation, by an organisation not involved in implementation, that reported results are accurat...
- Theory of Change (ToC)An explicit account of how and why a programme's activities are expected to lead to its intended outcomes, inc...
- Results FrameworkA structured set of a programme's intended results, from outputs to outcomes and impact, with indicators, base...
- Logical Framework (Logframe)A matrix that summarises a project's goal, purpose, outputs and activities, with indicators, means of verifica...
- Baseline, Midline and EndlineMeasurements taken at the start, middle and end of a programme using the same indicators and methods, so chang...
Research in practice
Cancer Screening Programme Economic and Business Case
We built the economic and business case for the national cancer screening programme. We measured screening coverage across the target population, the referral of positive results to diagnostic services, and the share of referred patients who start treatment within 30 days.
Read the case Devolution economics · Ministry of Devolution and ASALs · 2023National Economic Analysis of Devolution Outcomes
We analysed the socio-economic effect of devolution, comparing counties with targeted interventions against comparison counties. We tracked the share of counties adopting recommended fiscal management reforms and modelled the fiscal gap closed.
Read the case Independent verification · WaterAid · 2025Urban WASH Indicator Verification and Service Monitoring
We independently verified access to safely managed water in informal settlements, the frequency and duration of service interruptions, and sanitation coverage across peri-urban neighbourhoods.
Read the case Agriculture M&E · Machakos County Government · 2023County Climate-Resilient Agriculture M&E System
We designed the M&E system for the county's climate-resilient agriculture programme. It tracks adoption of climate-smart practices, changes in crop yield per hectare against baseline, and the competency of trained farmers.
Read the case